Tennessee vs. Toledo Women's Basketball Predictions & Picks - NCAA Tournament Second Round
Published: Mar. 19, 2023 at 2:39 AM CDT|Updated: Mar. 20, 2023 at 10:40 AM CDT
Monday's contest that pits the Tennessee Lady Volunteers (24-11) versus the Toledo Rockets (29-4) at Thompson-Boling Arena should be a one-sided matchup based on our computer prediction, which projects a final score of 76-64 in favor of Tennessee, who is heavy favorites by our model. Tipoff is at 6:00 PM ET on March 20.
In their last time out, the Lady Volunteers won on Saturday 95-50 against Saint Louis.
Tennessee vs. Toledo Game Info
- When: Monday, March 20, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET
- Where: Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, Tennessee
- How to Watch on TV: ESPN2
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Tennessee vs. Toledo Score Prediction
- Prediction: Tennessee 76, Toledo 64
Tennessee Schedule Analysis
- The Lady Volunteers defeated the No. 9 LSU Lady Tigers in a 69-67 win on March 4, which was their best victory of the season.
- The Lady Volunteers have five Quadrant 1 wins, tied for the 29th-most in Division I. But they also have 11 Quadrant 1 losses, tied for the 14th-most.
- Tennessee has tied for the second-most Quadrant 2 victories in the nation (nine).
- When facing Quadrant 3 teams, the Lady Volunteers are 7-0 (1.000%) -- tied for the 46th-most wins.
Tennessee 2022-23 Best Wins
- 69-67 over LSU (No. 9/AP Poll) on March 4
- 65-51 at home over Ole Miss (No. 18) on February 2
- 69-51 at home over Colorado (No. 21/AP Poll) on November 25
- 68-55 at home over Georgia (No. 32) on January 15
- 80-69 at home over Mississippi State (No. 35) on January 5
Toledo Schedule Analysis
- In their best win of the season, the Rockets beat the No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones, 80-73, on March 18.
- The Rockets have three wins over Quadrant 1 teams, tied for the 42nd-most in the nation.
- Toledo has four wins against Quadrant 2 teams, tied for the 46th-most in the country.
- Based on the RPI, the Lady Volunteers have seven wins against Quadrant 3 opponents, tied for the 46th-most in the nation.
- Toledo has tied for the 22nd-most Quadrant 4 wins in the nation (15).
Toledo 2022-23 Best Wins
- 80-73 over Iowa State (No. 17/AP Poll) on March 18
- 71-68 on the road over Michigan (No. 18/AP Poll) on December 8
- 73-58 over Bowling Green (No. 69) on March 11
- 62-56 at home over Bowling Green (No. 69) on March 4
- 72-70 on the road over Ball State (No. 72) on February 25
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Tennessee Performance Insights
- The Lady Volunteers outscore opponents by 10.7 points per game (scoring 77 points per game to rank 20th in college basketball while allowing 66.3 per outing to rank 231st in college basketball) and have a +374 scoring differential overall.
- In conference tilts, Tennessee scores fewer points per game (76.5) than its season average (77).
- The Lady Volunteers are averaging 78.6 points per game in home games. In road games, they are averaging 76.4 points per contest.
- Tennessee is giving up 62.5 points per game this season when playing at home, which is 8.9 fewer points than it is allowing away from home (71.4).
- The Lady Volunteers have seen an uptick in scoring lately, racking up 79.1 points per game in their last 10 contests, 2.1 points more than the 77 they've scored this year.
Toledo Performance Insights
- The Rockets outscore opponents by 11 points per game (posting 73.8 points per game, 43rd in college basketball, and conceding 62.8 per outing, 133rd in college basketball) and have a +364 scoring differential.
- In 2022-23, Toledo has scored 74.9 points per game in MAC action, and 73.8 overall.
- The Rockets are putting up more points at home (74.9 per game) than on the road (73.1).
- At home, Toledo allows 59.7 points per game. Away, it allows 65.3.
- The Rockets have played worse offensively over their previous 10 games, scoring 73.3 points per contest, 0.5 fewer points their than season average of 73.8.
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